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- Title
Tropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño.
- Authors
Wang, Qiuyun; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Wang, Chunzai; Ding, Ruiqiang; Sun, Cheng; Zheng, Fei; Feng, Juan; Xie, Fei; Li, Yanjie; Li, Fei; Xu, Yidan
- Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs), some of the most influential weather events across the globe, are modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, little is known about the feedback of TCs on ENSO. Here, observational and modelling evidence shows that TC activity in the southeastern western North Pacific can affect the Niño-3.4 index 3 months later. Increased TC activity in July–September can significantly contribute to the intensity of ENSO in October–December by weakening the Walker circulation and enhancing eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific. Thus, the greater the accumulated cyclone energy, the stronger (weaker) the El Niño (La Niña). A new physics-based empirical model for ENSO is constructed that significantly outperforms current models in predicting ENSO intensity from July to December and addressing the problem about the target period slippage of ENSO. Results suggest that TCs may provide significant cross-scale feedback to ENSO. While it is known that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences tropical cyclones, but little is known about a reverse effect. Here, data and model output shows that tropical cyclones can affect ENSO with a lead of 3 months, especially contributing to a significantly more intense El Niño in the winter months.
- Subjects
OCEAN waves; WALKER circulation; LA Nina; EL Nino; TROPICAL cyclones
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2019, Vol 10, Issue 1, pN.PAG
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-019-11720-w