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- Title
Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy.
- Authors
Mandel, David R.; Collins, Robert N.; Risko, Evan F.; Fugelsang, Jonathan A.
- Abstract
Three experiments (N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearchable online using one of two order variations of the interval construction procedure. One group of participants provided their best judgment (one step) prior to constructing an interval (i.e., lower bound, upper bound, and a confidence rating that the correct value fell in the range provided), whereas another group of participants provided their best judgment last, after the three-step confidence interval was constructed. The overall effect of this elicitation method was not significant in 8 out of 9 univariate tests. Moreover, the calibration of confidence intervals was not affected by elicitation order. The findings warrant skepticism regarding the benefit of prior confidence interval construction for improving judgment accuracy.
- Subjects
CONFIDENCE intervals; ELICITATION technique; CONSTRUCTION
- Publication
Judgment & Decision Making, 2020, Vol 15, Issue 5, p783
- ISSN
1930-2975
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1017/s1930297500007920