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- Title
Natural Vegetation Succession Under Climate Change and the Combined Effects on Net Primary Productivity.
- Authors
Zhang, Sen; Hao, Xingming; Zhao, Zhuoyi; Zhang, Jingjing; Fan, Xue; Li, Xuewei
- Abstract
Climate change and the resulting natural vegetation succession can alter vegetation productivity. However, the mechanisms underlying future productivity changes under the two influences remain unclear. Here, we used the comprehensive sequence classification system to simulate changes in global potential natural vegetation under different climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5), and combined the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model with random forest to assess the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to climate change and vegetation succession from 2020 to 2100. Except for SSP126, terrestrial NPP in 2100 decreased by 0.86, 2.39, and 2.54 Pg C·a−1 versus 2020 under SSP2‐4.5, SSP5‐8.5, and SSP3‐7.0, respectively. Forest was the primary contributor to terrestrial NPP changes. The total forest area was projected to increase under all scenarios, with SSP2‐4.5 showing the largest increase (358.57 × 104 km2). However, expanding forest regions exhibited a relatively low mean NPP, while stable regions demonstrated a declining pattern. Consequently, forest NPP increased under SSP1‐2.6 but decreased by 4.03, 3.43, and 0.82 Pg C·a−1 in 2100 versus 2020 under SSP5‐8.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP2‐4.5, respectively. In comparison, grassland and desert exerted minor influence on terrestrial NPP changes, their total NPP decreased only under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario. The grassland area decreased, but the mean NPP increased, whereas the desert area expanded, resulting in consistent changes in both total and mean NPP. Our results analyzed the effects of climate change and vegetation distribution under its influence on the change of NPP, which can deepen our understanding of their relationship. Plain Language Summary: Climate change can affect global terrestrial vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) both directly and indirectly by influencing vegetation succession, however, the process of NPP change remains uncertain. Combining the comprehensive sequential classification system, Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach model, and the random forest, we predicted the distribution of potential natural vegetation (PNV) and changes in NPP from 2020 to 2100, and analyzed the mechanisms of NPP change under climate change and vegetation succession. The global terrestrial NPP was predicted to decline under the scenario of sharper temperature increase in the future, with the largest contribution from the forest NPP change. Moreover, under the scenario of sharper temperature increase, the increase in forest area but the decrease in mean NPP was predicted to lead to a decrease in total NPP. Grassland and desert showed an increase in total NPP, but their area as well as mean NPP changes were opposite. Globally, for various PNVs on the land, varied reasons accounted for changes in total NPP. Overall, our results contribute toward better understanding of the relationship between future climate change and terrestrial vegetation ecosystems. Key Points: In the four climate scenarios, vegetation underwent mutual succession, yet all exhibited forest and desert expanded and grassland shrankFrom 2020 to 2100, global terrestrial net primary productivity mainly declines when affected by climate change and vegetation successionNet primary productivity of various vegetations has varying mechanisms of change in response to climate change and vegetation succession
- Subjects
CLIMATE change; VEGETATION dynamics; INHERITANCE &; succession; RANDOM forest algorithms; GRASSLANDS
- Publication
Earth's Future, 2023, Vol 11, Issue 11, p1
- ISSN
2328-4277
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2023EF003903