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- Title
Hazard function analysis of prognosis after recurrent colorectal cancer.
- Authors
Ise, Ichiro; Kawai, Kazushige; Nakano, Daisuke; Takao, Misato; Natsume, Soichiro; Kato, Hiroki; Nakamori, Sakiko; Dejima, Akira; Yamaguchi, Tatsuro
- Abstract
Background and objectives: Mean survival time (MST) is used as the indicator of prognosis in patients with a colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence. The present study aimed to visualize the changes in death risk after a CRC recurrence using hazard function analysis (HFA) to provide an alternative prognostic indicator to MST. Methods: The medical records of 725 consecutive patients with a recurrence following R0 radical surgery for CRC were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The five-year, post-recurrence survival rate was 37.8%, and the MST was 3.5 years while the risk of death peaked at 2.9 years post-recurrence. Seven variables were found to predict short-term survival, including the number of metastatic organs ≥ 2, non-surgical treatment for the recurrence, and a short interval before recurrence. In patients with a recurrence in one organ, the MST was four years, the peak time of death predicted by HFA was 2.9 years, and the five-year survival rate was 45.8%. In patients with a surgical resection of the recurrence, the MST was 8 years, the peak time of death was 3.3 years, and the five-year survival rate was 62%. Conclusions: The present study established a novel method of assessing changes in mortality risk over time using HFA in patients with a CRC recurrence.
- Subjects
HAZARD function (Statistics); SURVIVAL rate; COLORECTAL cancer; POSTMORTEM changes; PROGNOSIS
- Publication
Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery, 2024, Vol 409, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1435-2443
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00423-024-03308-w