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- Title
Higher quantiles of sea levels rise faster in Baltic Sea Climate projections.
- Authors
Dieterich, Christian; Radtke, Hagen
- Abstract
Absolute sea levels in the Baltic Sea will rise under the influence of climate warming, similar to those in the world ocean. For extreme sea levels, there are indications that they will rise even faster than mean sea levels, but that topic is still controversially discussed and existing studies point into different directions. We analyzed a regional climate model ensemble for the Baltic Sea for future sea level changes. We find that the rate of change differs between high sea levels and the average: In the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, the 99th percentile of sea level was predicted to rise faster than the median. In the south-western part, the relation was opposite. Thus, our simulations predict a change not only in the sea level mean, but also in its distribution. This pattern was almost consistent between the individual ensemble members. We investigated the 99th percentile as a proxy for extreme sea levels, since their partially stochastic nature limits the predictive skill of our 20-member ensemble. Our findings imply that adapting coastal protection to mean sea level change only may be regionally insufficient. Plain Language Summary: We simulated sea level rise in the Baltic Sea with a regional model. We analysed whether high sea levels, as they occur during a storm, rise faster than the mean sea levels. Our model suggests that this happens in the eastern Baltic Sea, while in the south-western part the rise is less fast. This information might be useful for coastal protection against flooding.
- Subjects
GLOBAL warming; SEA level; QUANTILES
- Publication
Climate Dynamics, 2024, Vol 62, Issue 5, p3709
- ISSN
0930-7575
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s00382-023-07094-x