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- Title
A multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess predator-prey balance: application to an intensively managed Lake Michigan pelagic fish community.
- Authors
Tsehaye, Iyob; Jones, Michael L.; Bence, James R.; Brenden, Travis O.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Warner, David M.; Kraft, Cliff
- Abstract
Using a Bayesian modeling approach, we developed a multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess trade-offs between predatory demands and prey productivities, with the aim to inform management of top predators. Focusing on the Lake Michigan fish community, we assessed these trade-offs in terms of predation mortalities and productivities of alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax) and functional responses of salmonines. Our predation mortality estimates suggested that salmonine consumption has been a major driver of prey dynamics, with sharp declines in alewife abundance in the 1960s-1980s and the 2000s coinciding with increased predation rates. Our functional response analysis indicated that feedback mechanisms are unlikely to help maintain a predator-prey balance, with Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush) consumption declining only at the lowest prey densities, while the other salmonines consumed prey at a maximum rate across all observed prey densities. This study demonstrates that a multispecies modeling approach combining stock assessment methods with explicit consideration of predator-prey interactions can provide a basis for tactical decision-making from a broader ecosystem perspective.
- Subjects
PREDATION; FISHERY management; CHINOOK salmon fishing; LAKE trout fishing; FISH population measurement
- Publication
Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences, 2014, Vol 71, Issue 4, p627
- ISSN
0706-652X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1139/cjfas-2013-0313