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- Title
Applying a General Analytic Method for Assessing Bias Sensitivity to Bias-Adjusted Threat and Equitable Threat Scores.
- Authors
Brill, Keith F.; Mesinger, Fedor
- Abstract
Bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores were designed to account for the effects of placement errors in assessing the performance of under- or overbiased forecasts. These bias-adjusted performance measures exhibit bias sensitivity. The critical performance ratio (CPR) is the minimum fraction of added forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is increased. In the opposite case, the CPR is the maximum fraction of removed forecasts that are correct for a performance measure to indicate improvement if bias is decreased. The CPR is derived here for the bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores to quantify bias sensitivity relative to several other measures of performance including conventional threat and equitable threat scores. The CPR for a bias-adjusted equitable threat score may indicate the likelihood of preserving or increasing the conventional equitable threat score if forecasts are bias corrected based on past performance.
- Subjects
RESEARCH bias; WEATHER forecasting; TEMPERATURE measurements; NUMERICAL analysis; STATISTICS; MEASUREMENT errors
- Publication
Weather & Forecasting, 2009, Vol 24, Issue 6, p1748
- ISSN
0882-8156
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/2009WAF2222272.1