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- Title
İklim değişimi senaryosunun Türkiye üzerindeki etkilerinin modellenmesi.
- Authors
Önol, Barış; Ünal, Yurdanur S.; Dalfes, H. Nüzhet
- Abstract
The Earth's climate has changed many times and fluctuated between the glacial and the interglacial periods since its formed. These changes related to natural forcings like volcanic eruptions, intense tectonic activity, solar activity and variation of Earth's orbital parameters, were sometimes very dramatic. Today, the global change we face to is different than the natural changes occurred in the past. Humaninduced climate change has been taken into consideration extensively within the last decade more than ever. Recent advances in both climate observing systems and methodologies to detect the climate change, as well as broader global coverage of observations help scientists to better understand the climate system. Scientific studies which are led by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) showed that dominance of anthropogenic effect on global warming is indisputable (IPCC, 2007). Regional climate change modeling has been applied to many different areas such as agriculture, seasonal forecasting, hydrology applications, paleoclimate and climate projections. Because of its ability to resolve sharp gradients and contrasts in the surface conditions, the regional climate modeling approach yields more accurate and spatially detailed information. In this study, the ICTP-Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) has been used to downscale present and future scenario simulations generated by the NASA-Finite Volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) over Turkey and its surroundings. The present-day (1961-1990, RF) and the future climate change simulations (2071-2100, A2) are based on the IPCC Greenhouse Gases emissions, which are CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFC11- CFC12. Emission scenarios for these gases have been implemented into the radiation scheme for the simulations and, relatively high resolution of 30 km is adopted to resolve the complex topography of the domain. The role of the domain characteristics such as complex land-sea distribution determines the subregional climatic features and spatial climate variability. This diverse climatic structure of the region brings great challenge for regional climate modeling. Levantine Sea, Aegean Sea and Black Sea are main moisture sources of the Turkey and its surrounding regions. A2 simulation results which correspond future climate indicate that warming over Turkey's climatic zones is in the range of 2-5 °C. Summer temperature changes are more dominant in the A2 scenario. This pattern has also been observed for neighboring countries. Summer heat wave conditions over Aegean region (5 °C increase) are more obvious in the area averages than in the spatial pattern based model results. The difference between the summer and winter change is about 3°C and it could play an important role in contributing to temporal shifts of the transition seasons. In addition, warming in winter over eastern and southeastern of Turkey which have higher altitudes are nearly 1°C higher than for Marmara and Aegean regions which have lower altitudes. Autumn temperature changes for all regions are affected by the extension of the summer season extension due to the global warming. Most significant precipitation changes in A2 scenario have been occurred over the Mediterranean region of Turkey in winter and over the Southeastern of Turkey in autumn.…
- Subjects
MEDITERRANEAN Region; TURKEY; COMPUTER simulation; EFFECT of human beings on climate change; INTERGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change; GREENHOUSE gases &; the environment; GLOBAL warming; MATHEMATICAL models of atmospheric circulation; METEOROLOGICAL precipitation
- Publication
ITU Journal Series D: Engineering, 2009, Vol 8, Issue 5, p169
- ISSN
1303-703X
- Publication type
Article