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- Title
Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea.
- Authors
Amadio, Mattia; Essenfelder, Arthur H.; Bagli, Stefano; Marzi, Sepehr; Mazzoli, Paolo; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Roberts, Stephen
- Abstract
The combined effect of global sea level rise and land subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Coastal flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the low-lying coastal plain of the North Adriatic coast, one of the most sensitive areas to relative sea level changes. Over the last half a century, this stretch of coast has experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of which was land subsidence; in the forthcoming decades, climate-induced sea level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with extreme sea level scenarios, under both historical conditions and sea level rise projections in 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on two pilot sites located along the North Adriatic coast of Emilia-Romagna: Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative extreme sea level scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage model to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios, and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated by means of cost–benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to increased probability of intense flooding in the near future.
- Subjects
RIMINI (Italy); ITALY; RELATIVE sea level change; COST effectiveness; FLOOD damage; SEA level; LAND subsidence; FLOODS; FLOOD risk; COASTAL processes (Physical geology)
- Publication
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 2022, Vol 22, Issue 1, p265
- ISSN
1561-8633
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022