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- Title
Impact of Climate Change on Water Sources and River‐Floodplain Mixing in the Natural Wetland Floodplain of Biebrza River.
- Authors
Berezowski, Tomasz; Partington, Daniel
- Abstract
The origins of river and floodplain waters (groundwater, rainfall, and snowmelt) and their extent during overbank flow events strongly impact ecological processes such as denitrification and vegetation development. However, the long‐term sensitivity of floodplain water signatures to climate change remains elusive. We examined how the integrated hydrological model HydroGeoSphere and the Hydraulic Mixing‐Cell method could help us understand the long‐term impact of climate change on water signatures and their spatial distribution in the protected Biebrza River Catchment in northeastern Poland. Our model relied on 20th century Reanalysis Data from 1881 to 2015 and an ensemble of EURO‐CORDEX simulations for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The historical component of the simulations was subjected to extensive multiple‐variable validation from 1881 to 2019. The results show that the extents of water sources were rather stable in the floodplain in the 1881–2015 period. The projected future impacts were variable with each analyzed RCP, but in all cases, different significant trends were present for the spatial distribution of water sources and for the river‐floodplain mixing. However, the total volume of water from different sources was less sensitive to climate change than the dominant sources and spatial distribution of water. The simulation results highlight the impact of climate change on the extent of water sources in temperate zone wetlands with significant implications for ecological processes and management. These results also underscore the urgent need to leverage such modeling studies to inform protective and preservation strategies of floodplain wetlands. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we used a hydrological model that was capable to simulate volumes of water from rain, snowmelt, groundwater discharge, and river flooding to investigate how these volumes will vary with the climatic conditions. For the study site, we selected the Biebrza River wetland floodplain, where former research highlighted the presence of these water sources in inundation during flooding. It was also known that the water sources have different chemical (e.g., nutrients) and physical (e.g., sediments) compositions and they correlate with the vegetation in the wetland. Hence, any change in the extent of these water sources (driven e.g., by climate change) may affect vegetation. Our research indicated that indeed the spatial extent of water sources will strongly vary with the future climate projection while the less detailed floodplain‐wise volume of the water sources will not vary that much. We also showed that the direction of change in the water sources' extent will be different given the analyzed climate scenario. These results should be taken into account especially by the natural conservation managers to prepare for the changes. Key Points: Simulations reveal significant alterations in surface water source patterns in a wetland floodplain due to projected climate change by 2099.Different climate scenarios have variable and sometimes counterintuitive impacts on water source patterns.Spatial analysis of the water sources trend in the floodplain shows greater sensitivity to climate change than lumped model output.
- Subjects
POLAND; FLOODPLAINS; WETLANDS; WATERSHEDS; ECOLOGICAL impact; CLIMATE change; WATER distribution; CLIMATE sensitivity
- Publication
Water Resources Research, 2023, Vol 59, Issue 11, p1
- ISSN
0043-1397
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2023WR035836