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- Title
Dealing with uncertainty: turbulent parameterizations and grid-spacing effects in numerical modelling of deep moist convective processes.
- Authors
Fiori, E.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.
- Abstract
Computer power has grown to the point that veryfine- mesh mesoscale modelling is now possible. Going down through scales is clumsily supposed to reduce uncertainty and to improve the predictive ability of the models. This work provides a contribution to understand how the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) of severe weather events is affected by increasing the model grid resolution and by choosing a parameterization which is able to represent turbulent processes at such finer scales. A deep moist convective scenario, a supercell, in a simplified atmospheric setting is studied by mean of high resolution numerical simulations with COSMO-Model. Different turbulent closures are used and their impacts on the space-time properties of convective fields are discussed. The convective-resolving solutions adopting Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulent closure converge with respect to the overall flow field structure when grid spacing is properly reduced. By comparing the rainfall fields produced by the model on larger scales with those at the convergence scales it's possible to size up the uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself on the predicted ground effects in such simplified scenario.
- Subjects
NUMERICAL weather forecasting; TURBULENCE; EDDIES; PARAMETER estimation; PREDICTIVE tests
- Publication
Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences, 2009, Vol 9, Issue 6, p1871
- ISSN
1561-8633
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/nhess-9-1871-2009