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- Title
A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS IN ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES.EVIDENCE FROM THE CASPIAN REGION.
- Authors
GRIGORE, George-Eduard; MUȘETESCU, Radu-Cristian; NICOLAE, Simona; VLĂDUȚ, Oana
- Abstract
The aim of the study is to estimate the economic growth within the Caspian countries (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Uzbekistan) in the period 1997- 2018 by applying panel methodological approach. From this perspective, two econometric models were created in which we investigated the impact of the explanatory variables (i.e. Brent Crude Oil Price, Exports, Imports, Government Expenditure, Foreign Direct Investments, and CO2 Emissions) on economic growth expressed according to the level of GDP per capita in these oil-producing Caspian countries. The economic growth in the Caspian countries was measured and estimated using specified panel regression methods, such as: the Common Effects Model, the Fixed Effects Model, and the Random Effects Model. The obtained results showed that GDP per capita is positively and directly influenced, generating a 1.60% increase influenced the Exports, while 10% increase of CO2 Emissions determines approximately 1% decrease of GDP per capita in the analysed period. At the same time, by applying the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), our results showed that the variables are not cointegrated and the level of GDP per capita is not influenced by the co-movements of the explanatory variables in the long-run. Interestingly, the economic growth is not influenced by the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), which is recommended and indicated for the six Caspian countries to diversify their export opportunities (especially oil and natural gas) in order to the energy security objectives.
- Subjects
PETROLEUM; ECONOMIC expansion; ECONOMIC research; FOREIGN investments; FIXED effects model; PANEL analysis; VECTOR error-correction models
- Publication
Economic Computation & Economic Cybernetics Studies & Research, 2022, Vol 56, Issue 4, p225
- ISSN
0424-267X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.24818/18423264/56.4.22.14