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- Title
The unusual 2014–2016 El Niño events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments.
- Authors
Xie, Ruihuang; Fang, Xianghui
- Abstract
The 2014–2016 El Niño events consist of a stalled El Niño event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Niño event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Niño events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Niño in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges (EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Niño events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Niño.
- Subjects
FORECASTING; WESTERLIES; SCIENTIFIC community; STOCHASTIC models; PREDICTION models
- Publication
SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2020, Vol 63, Issue 5, p626
- ISSN
1674-7313
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11430-019-9561-2