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- Title
Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates.
- Authors
Fukuda, Kosei
- Abstract
Aggregate data on birth rates in the U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. Main findings are fivefold. First, age, period, and cohort effects movements are all larger in Japan than in the U.S. Second, in both countries, age effects are the largest and are roughly consistent with the life-cycle movements showing an inverted U shape. Third, Easterlin’s cohort size hypothesis roughly fits U.S. birth rates but not Japanese birth rates. Fourth, despite rapid decline of total fertility rates in Japan in last three decades, period effects have been on an upward trend since the early 1990s. Finally, upward and downward cohort effects movements in Japan are derived by rapid economic growth and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law, respectively.
- Subjects
JAPAN; UNITED States; BIRTH rate; AGE &; employment; ECONOMIC development; ECONOMIC indicators; COHORT analysis; AGE groups; EMPLOYMENT
- Publication
Population Research & Policy Review, 2008, Vol 27, Issue 4, p385
- ISSN
0167-5923
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11113-008-9074-9