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- Title
Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of spatio-temporal evolution of slow slip events: application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event in the Bungo Channel, Japan.
- Authors
Kano, Masayuki; Tanaka, Yusuke; Sato, Daisuke; Iinuma, Takeshi; Hori, Takane
- Abstract
Monitoring and predicting fault slip behaviors in subduction zones is essential for understanding earthquake cycles and assessing future earthquake potential. We developed a data assimilation method for fault slip monitoring and the short-term prediction of slow slip events, and applied to the 2010 Bungo Channel slow slip event in southwest Japan. The observed geodetic data were quantitatively explained using a physics-based model with data assimilation. We investigated short-term predictability by assimilating observation data within limited periods. Without prior constraints on fault slip style, observations solely during slip acceleration predicted the occurrence of a fast slip; however, the inclusion of slip deceleration data successfully predicted a slow transient slip. With prior constraints to exclude unstable slip, the assimilation of data after slow slip event occurrence also predicted a slow transient slip. This study provides a tool using data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and prediction based on real observation data.
- Subjects
JAPAN; SPATIOTEMPORAL processes; KALMAN filtering; GLOBAL Positioning System; SUBDUCTION zones
- Publication
Earth, Planets & Space, 2024, Vol 76, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
1343-8832
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1186/s40623-024-02004-9