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- Title
The randomized Gutenberg–Richter model: a recurrence model based on extreme value theory—impacts on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and comparison with the standard approach.
- Authors
Dutfoy, Anne; Senfaute, Gloria
- Abstract
Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) require that at least the mean activity rate be known, as well as the distribution of magnitudes. Within the Gutenberg–Richter assumption, the magnitudes follow an exponential distribution which is upperly truncated to a maximum possible magnitude denoted m max . This parameter is often fixed from expert judgement under seismo-tectonic considerations, due to a lack of universal method. This paper proposes an alternative to the common Gutenberg Richter model based on the extreme value theory: it models the tail distribution of the magnitudes with a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). To integrate this GPD model in a PSHA calculation for areas of low to moderate seimsicity, we propose the Randomized Gutenberg–Richter model: this is an innovative approach based on the usual exponential distribution where m max is randomized and follows a distribution defined from that previous GPD model. The inference process takes into account the time varying level of completeness of the catalogue and the uncertainty in the magnitude value itself. In order to quantify the impacts of the new model on the seismic hazard levels, we implemented it into a realistic probabilistic seismic hazard calculation. Results indicate that the Randomized Gutenberg–Richter model seems to be very useful for future PSHA models. This new recurrence model avoids having to fix a priori the maximum possible magnitude m max . This is particularly interesting as there is no widely accepted method to estimate that upper bound.
- Subjects
EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis; DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory); EXTREME value theory; PARETO distribution; MODEL theory; JUDGMENT (Psychology); HAZARD mitigation
- Publication
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2022, Vol 20, Issue 12, p6349
- ISSN
1570-761X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s10518-022-01466-0