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- Title
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF AN ACCELERATED LIFE-TEST MODEL AND A TOXICOKINETICS-BASED MODEL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF PORCELLIO SCABER SURVIVAL DATA.
- Authors
Shijin Ren
- Abstract
Statistical models have long been used for reliability analysis and risk assessment. In the present study, an accelerated life-test model was used to analyze a set of dose-time-response data obtained with the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber. Survival data were experimentally obtained by exposing P. scaber to diazinon (a nonpersistent insecticide) at six concentrations between 2 and 11.31 μg/g (toxicant/soil). Survival data are presented on a weekly basis. The accelerated life-test model assumed a log-normal distribution and constant variance across all diazinon concentrations. Model parameters were obtained by maximum likelihood estimation. The accelerated life-test model was compared to a toxicokinetics-based model reported in the literature. Survival predictions made by both models were compared with the observed data. Both the accelerated life-test model and the toxicokineticsbased model underestimated toxicity at a diazinon concentration of 8 μg/g. Overall, however, the accelerated life-test model outperformed the toxicokinetics-based model, with survival predictions closer to the observed data in most cases and a stronger correlation between predicted and observed survivals. However, as a statistical model, the accelerated life-test model did not reveal mechanistic information, and only statistical and distributional interpretations of its model parameters could be made.
- Subjects
PORCELLIO scaber; ACCELERATED life testing; RISK assessment; TOXICITY testing; ANIMAL behavior; ENVIRONMENTAL toxicology
- Publication
Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry, 2004, Vol 23, Issue 1, p232
- ISSN
0730-7268
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1897/03-66