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- Title
Prospects of natural gas consumption in Pakistan: based on the LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR framework.
- Authors
Lund, Ibrar H.; Shaikh, Faheemullah; Harijan, Khanji; Kumar, Laveet; Dagar, Vishal
- Abstract
The natural gas (NG) forms the sizeable portion of the primary energy consumption in Pakistan. However, its depleting domestic reserves and increasing demand is challenging to balance the supply–demand in the country. This paper investigates the relationship between NG consumption and driving factors using LMDI-STIRPAT PLSR framework. It is learned that fossil energy structure and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are most influencing factors on NG consumption, followed by non-clean energy structure, energy intensity, and population. The factors were further modelled to forecast the future values of NG consumption for various scenarios. It is found that NG consumption would be 42.107 MTOE under the high development scenario which would be twice the baseline scenario. It is projected that indigenous NG production will fall from 4 to 2 billion cubic feet/day and demand will increase by 1.5 billion cubic feet/day. Therefore, an optimized strategy is required for a long-term solution to cater this increasing supply–demand.
- Subjects
PAKISTAN; NATURAL gas consumption; NATURAL gas prospecting; NATURAL gas; ENERGY intensity (Economics); FOSSIL fuels; ENERGY consumption; GROSS domestic product
- Publication
Environmental Science & Pollution Research, 2024, Vol 31, Issue 2, p2090
- ISSN
0944-1344
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11356-023-31274-1