We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Counterfactual analysis of the 2023 Omicron XBB wave in China.
- Authors
Hengcong Liu; Xiangyanyu Xu; Xiaowei Deng; Zexin Hu; Ruijia Sun; Junyi Zou; Jiayi Dong; Qianhui Wu; Xinhua Chen; Lan Yi; Jun Cai; Juanjuan Zhang; Ajelli, Marco; Hongjie Yu
- Abstract
Background: China has experienced a COVID-19 wave caused by Omicron XBB variant starting in April 2023. Our aim is to conduct a retrospective analysis exploring the dynamics of the outbreak under counterfactual scenarios that combine the use of vaccines, antiviral drugs, and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Methods: We developed a mathematical model of XBB transmission in China, which has been calibrated using SARS-CoV-2 positive rates per week. Intrinsic age-specific infectionhospitalization risk, infection-ICU risk, and infection-fatality risk were used to estimate disease burdens, characterized as number of hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths. Results: We estimated that in absence of behavioral change, the XBB outbreak in spring 2023 would have resulted in 0.86 billion infections (~61% of the total population). Our counterfactual analysis shows that the synergetic effect of vaccination (70% vaccination coverage), antiviral treatment (20% receiving antiviral treatment), and moderate nonpharmaceutical interventions (20% isolation and L1 PHSMs) could reduce the number of deaths to levels close to seasonal influenza (1.17 vs. 0.65 per 10,000 individuals and 5.85 vs. 3.85 per 10,000 individuals aged 60+, respectively). The maximum peak prevalence of hospital and ICU admissions are estimated to be lower than the corresponding capacities (8.6 vs. 10.4 per 10,000 individuals and 1.2 vs. 2.1 per 10,000 individuals, respectively). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that the capacity of the Chinese healthcare system was adequate to face the Omicron XBB wave in spring 2023 but, at the same time, supports the importance of administering highly effective vaccine with long-lasting immune response, and the use of antiviral treatments.
- Subjects
CHINA; SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant; COVID-19 pandemic; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL models; HOSPITAL admission &; discharge; VACCINATION
- Publication
Infectious Disease Modelling (2468-2152), 2024, Vol 9, Issue 1, p195
- ISSN
2468-2152
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.006