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- Title
中国农业能源回弹效应的形成机制、 时空演变及影响因素.
- Authors
李海鹏; 李 卓; 张俊飚
- Abstract
Reducing the agricultural energy rebound effect is the key to improving the performance of agricultural green development policies, promoting agriculture to achieve the dual goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and ensuring China’s national food security. Based on the analysis of the formation mechanism of the agricultural energy rebound effect, this article used the systematic GMM model to measure the agricultural energy rebound effect in China from 1995 to 2019 and the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to analyze the influencing factors. The results found that: ① The agricultural energy rebound effect was caused by increased energy efficiency inducing biased energy consumption behavior in the main bodies at the production and consumption ends of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in energy consumption exceeding savings. This result reflected the elastic relationship between agricultural energy efficiency and energy consumption demand. ② The average agricultural energy rebound effect in China from 1995 to 2019 was 0.789, which showed a partial rebound effect, and the agricultural energy efficiency improvement produced a certain energy-saving effect. ③ The agricultural energy rebound effects in the eastern, central, and western regions of China were 0.771, 0.820, and 0.784 from 1995 to 2019, respectively, all showing a decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing trend, and the change trend was consistent with the national agricultural modernization process.④ Using the average value of agricultural energy intensity and energy rebound effect in 2019 as the boundary, this study divided the country into demonstration areas, key areas, potential areas, and key management areas for agricultural energy rebound effect. ⑤ The level of residents’ income, that of agricultural mechanization, the structure of agricultural industry, and the effective irrigation area all had positive effects on the agricultural energy rebound effect in each region. On the other hand, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industry structures and the level of rural human capital had negative effects. The urbanization rate and agricultural mechanization level improved the agricultural energy rebound effect in neighboring regions, and the level of rural human capital exacerbated the agricultural energy rebound effect in neighboring regions. This article proposes measures to cope with the agricultural energy rebound effect, such as optimizing agricultural production material subsidies, guiding residents’ food consumption, and accelerating renewable energy technology substitution.
- Subjects
CHINA; CONSUMPTION (Economics); SUSTAINABLE development; AGRICULTURAL development; FARM mechanization; SUBSTITUTION (Technology); ENERGY consumption; CARBON offsetting
- Publication
China Population Resources & Environment, 2022, Vol 32, Issue 10, p24
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.12062/cpre20220608