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- Title
Intra‐Eruption Forecasting Using Analogue Volcano and Eruption Sets.
- Authors
Bebbington, Mark S.; Jenkins, Susanna F.
- Abstract
Forecasting the likely style and chronology of activity within an eruption is a complex issue that has received far less attention than forecasting the onset and/or the magnitude. By developing a global data set of coded phases (discrete styles of activity within previous eruptions), we can model the resulting data using a semi‐Markov chain. Given enough data, we were able to examine the question of whether analogue‐based strategies for subsetting the data can improve forecasting performance of phase chronology and style within ongoing eruptions. This work required inclusion of a "null analogue" element to ensure no surprises, that is, phase transitions or durations that were not in the data set and hence cannot be predicted. We have significantly expanded, and made available, our curated data set on eruption phases, which now contains 2670 eruptions (6871 phases), of which 56% are multi‐phase. This increases the data set by 283% and includes 95% of Holocene eruptions with text descriptions. We find that, with the notable exception of shields, limiting the analogue set on the basis of volcano morphology and/or composition is not significantly more informative than using the entire data set. Dynamically adjusting the data limits by eliminating eruptions without the observed phase as the eruption progresses provided little benefit, although subsetting on the basis of VEI may have some utility. At the individual volcano level, non‐analogue models can outperform the entire data set, if the target volcano has relatively unique behavior and/or a large enough record of phased eruptions. Plain Language Summary: Volcanic eruptions can consist of multiple phases, separated either by quiescence, or by a switch to a different style of activity, e.g., from explosive to effusive. We present a data set of 6871 phases from 2670 historical eruptions, extending a previously curated set of 698 eruptions. We update a probabilistic model for forecasting eruption progression through multiple states. The new data and model are then used to investigate if ongoing eruptions can be better forecast by using only a subset of the data. In particular we consider using (a) only data from volcanoes with similar composition (e.g., basalts), (b) only data from volcanoes of the same type (e.g., stratovolcanoes), (c) only data from volcanoes with the same composition and type, (d) only data from the volcano concerned. Except for shield volcanoes, none of these limitations outperform the entire data set, although using data from only the target volcano may be effective if there is enough of it, or the behavior of the target volcano is relatively unique (e.g., Stromboli). Key Points: Intra‐eruption forecasting models developed for informative analogue eruption subsets on the basis of volcano type and compositionMix of informative and null (global frequency) analogs, accounting for transitions not in the data set, proposed for eruption forecastingNeither morphology nor composition based analogs, or dynamically adapting analogs, outperform using all of the phase data as an analogue
- Subjects
STRATOVOLCANOES; FORECASTING; VOLCANOES; PHASE transitions; VOLCANIC eruptions; HOLOCENE Epoch
- Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 2022, Vol 127, Issue 6, p1
- ISSN
2169-9313
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2022JB024343