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- Title
A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record.
- Authors
Wadey, M. P.; Haigh, I. D.; Brown, J. M.
- Abstract
For the UK's longest and most complete sea level record (Newlyn), we assess extreme high water events and their temporal clustering; prompted by the 2013/2014 winter of flooding and storms. These are set into context against this almost 100 yr record. We define annual periods for which storm activity, tides and sea levels can be compared on a year-by-year basis. Amongst the storms and high tides which affected Newlyn the recent winter produced the largest recorded high water (3 February 2014) and five others above a 1 in 1 yr return period. The large magnitude of tide and mean sea level, and the close inter-event spacings (of large return period high waters), suggests that the 2013/2014 high water "season" may be considered the most extreme on record. However, storm and sea level events may be classified in different ways. For example in the context of sea level rise (which we calculate linearly as 1.81 ± 0.1 mmyr-1 from 1915 to 2014), a lower probability combination of surge and tide occurred on 29 January 1948, whilst 1995/1996 storm surge season saw the most high waters of ≥ 1 in 1 yr return period. We provide a basic categorisation of five types of high water cluster, ranging from consecutive tidal cycles to multiple years. The assessment is extended to other UK sites (with shorter sea level records and different tide-surge characteristics), which suggests 2013/2014 was extreme, although further work should assess clustering mechanisms and flood system "memory".
- Subjects
SEA level; MARINE geodesy; STORM surges; OCEAN conditions (Weather); MARINE meteorology
- Publication
Ocean Science Discussions, 2014, Vol 11, Issue 4, p1995
- ISSN
1812-0806
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.5194/osd-11-1995-2014