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- Title
Evaluation and statistical downscaling of East Asian summer monsoon forecasting in BCC and MOHC seasonal prediction systems.
- Authors
Liu, Ying; Ren, Hong‐Li; Scaife, Adam A.; Li, Chaofan
- Abstract
In seasonal climate predictions, the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is still a challenge, in spite of the wide usage of coupled climate models. Therefore, in this article the predictability of the monsoon including the atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies is investigated, based on the reforecast data during 1992–2011 in two coupled prediction systems: GloSea5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) and BCC_CSM1.1m from the Beijing Climate Center (BCC). The results show that the interannual variability of 850 hPa zonal wind over East Asia and the northwest Pacific can be well reproduced, and the prediction skill is significant in both systems. The Philippine anticyclone is highly predictable over the tropical northwest Pacific, and it transfers the predictable signals from the winter El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into the climate prediction in East Asia and rainfall prediction in the Yangtze River basin. Two dynamical indices of the EASM show that the prediction skills in these two systems are comparable. BCC_CSM1.1m tends to overestimate the coupling between the monsoon and ENSO, while GloSea5 shows a similar magnitude to the observations. Besides, a simple statistical downscaling method is adopted in this article based on the predictable circulation data, which provides an efficient tool to improve the raw rainfall forecast skill over China. In this study, the predictability including atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies are investigated using reforecast data during 1992–2011 from two coupled prediction systems: GloSea5 and BCC_CSM1.1m from the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) and Beijing Climate Center (BCC) respectively. The anomalous Philippine anticyclone can be captured well by the systems as a highly predictable signal in the northwest tropical Pacific, and BCC_CSM1.1m tends to overestimate the coupled relationship between the monsoon and ENSO, while GloSea5 has a similar magnitude to observations. A simple statistical downscaling method is then applied which significantly increases prediction skill for rainfall over China by extracting well‐predicted circulation information from the models, and provides an efficient tool to improve raw rainfall forecasts from the models.
- Subjects
CLIMATOLOGY; PREDICTION models; WEATHER forecasting; ATMOSPHERIC models; PACIFIC Ocean currents; SOUTHERN oscillation
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018, Vol 144, Issue 717, p2798
- ISSN
0035-9009
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/qj.3405