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- Title
Is your profiling strategy robust?
- Authors
DAVIDOVITCH, LIOR; BEN-HAIM, YAKOV
- Abstract
The economic theory of crime views criminals as rational decision makers, implying elastic response to law enforcement. Group-dependent elasticities can be exploited for efficient allocation of enforcement resources. However, profiling can augment both number of arrests and total crime since non-profiled groups will increase their criminality. Elasticities are highly uncertain, so prediction is difficult and uncertainty must be accounted for in designing a profiling strategy. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) total crime rate. Using an empirical example, based on running red lights, we demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty and total crime rate.
- Subjects
PREDICTION of criminal behavior; CRIMINAL law; LAW enforcement; CRIMINAL justice system; UNCERTAINTY (Information theory)
- Publication
Law, Probability & Risk, 2011, Vol 10, Issue 1, p59
- ISSN
1470-8396
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1093/lpr/mgq012