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- Title
App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden.
- Authors
Kennedy, Beatrice; Fitipaldi, Hugo; Hammar, Ulf; Maziarz, Marlena; Tsereteli, Neli; Oskolkov, Nikolay; Varotsis, Georgios; Franks, Camilla A.; Nguyen, Diem; Spiliopoulos, Lampros; Adami, Hans-Olov; Björk, Jonas; Engblom, Stefan; Fall, Katja; Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Litton, Jan-Eric; Martinell, Mats; Oudin, Anna; Sjöström, Torbjörn; Timpka, Toomas
- Abstract
The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model. The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance using daily symptom reports from study participants. Here, the authors show how syndromic surveillance can be used to estimate regional COVID-19 prevalence and to predict later COVID-19 hospital admissions.
- Subjects
SWEDEN; HOSPITAL admission &; discharge; COVID-19; SYMPTOMS; DIAGNOSTIC use of polymerase chain reaction; COVID-19 testing; MOBILE apps
- Publication
Nature Communications, 2022, Vol 13, Issue 1, p1
- ISSN
2041-1723
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1038/s41467-022-29608-7