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- Title
Visualization of Risk Factors and Predictive Models for Early Death of Neonatal Gastric Perforation.
- Authors
Mengying, Cui; Pengfei, Chen; Jinfeng, Hou; Yi, Wang; Wei, Liu; Zhenhua, Guo
- Abstract
A retrospective analysis was performed from May 2003 to October 2021 at our hospital. One hundred and eleven neonates diagnosed with gastric perforation were categorized into non-survivor and survivor groups based on prognosis. The mortality rate was 23.42%. Logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the early neonatal death. The non-survivor groups showed more abdominal distension, vomiting, hypoxia, acidosis, hyperkalemia, and coagulation abnormalities. Serum potassium concentration (odds ratio [OR] 2.148, P =.043) was an independent risk factor; however, arterial partial pressure of oxygen (OR 0.977, P =.024), bicarbonate (OR 0.779, P =.023), and platelet count (OR 0.986, P =.014) had protective effects on neonatal death. Based on this, a visualized nomogram prediction model was constructed, patients who had a nomogram score of more than 163.787 was considered to have high risks of mortality, the area under the curve of this was up to 0.828 (95% confidence interval [0.733, 0.923]), the sensitivity was 80.0%, and the specificity was 76.9%.
- Subjects
CHINA; RISK assessment; PREDICTION models; PLATELET count; ABDOMINAL surgery; LOGISTIC regression analysis; HYPERKALEMIA; POTASSIUM; PERINATAL death; RETROSPECTIVE studies; BICARBONATE ions; DESCRIPTIVE statistics; PEDIATRICS; ODDS ratio; ARTERIAL pressure; GASTRIC diseases; INTENSIVE care units; VOMITING; CONFIDENCE intervals; ACIDOSIS; HYPOXEMIA; SENSITIVITY &; specificity (Statistics); CHILDREN
- Publication
Clinical Pediatrics, 2024, Vol 63, Issue 7, p986
- ISSN
0009-9228
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1177/00099228231201315