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- Title
ESTIMATING AN ACQUISITION PROGRAM'S Likelihood of Staying Within COST and SCHEDULE BOUNDS.
- Authors
Trudelle, Ryan; White, Edward D.; Koschnick, Clay; Ritschel, Jonathan D.; Lucas, Brandon
- Abstract
Program managers use prior experience to spot potential programmatic areas of concern. Augmenting this experience, the authors present an empirical procedure to estimate the likelihood of a program not exceeding two schedule and cost thresholds: (a) 15 percent of the initial total acquisition cost estimate from Milestone (MS) B to Initial Operating Capability (IOC); and (b) 15 percent of the estimated length (in months) between MS B and IOC--the second bound being 25 percent of the cost and schedule estimate. Using logistic regression and odds ratios, the authors analyze 49 Department of Defense programs and generally find that electronic system programs, extremely large programs (exceeding $17.5 billion in Base Year 2017 dollars), programs procuring smaller quantities of units, and programs with shorter schedules (less time from MS A to MS B and projected time from MS B to IOC) experience smaller percentages of cost growth and schedule slippage.
- Subjects
COST estimates; SYSTEMS engineering; LOGISTIC regression analysis; MATHEMATICAL bounds; ODDS ratio
- Publication
Defense Acquisition Research Journal: A Publication of the Defense Acquisition University, 2017, Vol 24, Issue 4, p600
- ISSN
2156-8391
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.22594/dau.17-775.24.04