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- Title
Neutralizing Antibody Levels as a Correlate of Protection Against SARS‐CoV‐2 Infection: A Modeling Analysis.
- Authors
Lingas, Guillaume; Planas, Delphine; Péré, Hélène; Porrot, Françoise; Guivel‐Benhassine, Florence; Staropoli, Isabelle; Duffy, Darragh; Chapuis, Nicolas; Gobeaux, Camille; Veyer, David; Delaugerre, Constance; Le Goff, Jérôme; Getten, Prunelle; Hadjadj, Jérôme; Bellino, Adèle; Parfait, Béatrice; Treluyer, Jean‐Marc; Schwartz, Olivier; Guedj, Jérémie; Kernéis, Solen
- Abstract
Although anti‐severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 antibody kinetics have been described in large populations of vaccinated individuals, we still poorly understand how they evolve during a natural infection and how this impacts viral clearance. For that purpose, we analyzed the kinetics of both viral load and neutralizing antibody levels in a prospective cohort of individuals during acute infection with alpha variant. Using a mathematical model, we show that the progressive increase in neutralizing antibodies leads to a shortening of the half‐life of both infected cells and infectious viral particles. We estimated that the neutralizing activity reached 90% of its maximal level within 11 days after symptom onset and could reduce the half‐life of both infected cells and circulating virus by a 6‐fold factor, thus playing a key role to achieve rapid viral clearance. Using this model, we conducted a simulation study to predict in a more general context the protection conferred by pre‐existing neutralization titers, due to either vaccination or prior infection. We predicted that a neutralizing activity, as measured by 50% effective dose > 103, could reduce by 46% the risk of having viral load detectable by standard polymerase chain reaction assays and by 98% the risk of having viral load above the threshold of infectiousness. Our model shows that neutralizing activity could be used to define correlates of protection against infection and transmission.
- Subjects
VIRAL load; POLYMERASE chain reaction; SARS-CoV-2; IMMUNOGLOBULINS; INFECTIOUS disease transmission; PLANT protection
- Publication
Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 2024, Vol 115, Issue 1, p86
- ISSN
0009-9236
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/cpt.3069