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- Title
Climate change, production and trade in apples.
- Authors
Larue, Bruno; Ker, Alan P.
- Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the impacts of climate extremes on the production and trade of apples. Apple production being notoriously sensitive to climate shocks, we show that March and April temperatures and precipitations beyond estimated thresholds cause large yield reductions in Quebec and Ontario. In years when climate shocks are large and highly correlated across space, large variations in national production cause major variations in trade flows. Hence, we exploit the theoretical foundations of a sectoral structural gravity model to implement counterfactual trade experiments about harvest shocks in Canada and the United States. We report changes in tariffs, imports, exports, farmgate prices, and in consumer welfare. The shocks greatly impact trade between North American countries but have little impact on other countries except for Chile and New Zealand which see their exports grow.
- Subjects
CLIMATE extremes; APPLE growing; INTERNATIONAL trade; GRAVITY model (Social sciences); STRUCTURAL models
- Publication
Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2024, Vol 72, Issue 3, p325
- ISSN
0008-3976
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/cjag.12367