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- Title
A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan.
- Authors
Wang, J.; Wu, Yih-Min; Huang, Duruo; Chang, Su-Chin
- Abstract
Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude-frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire-Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake's magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan.
- Subjects
TAIWAN; EARTHQUAKES; EARTHQUAKE magnitude; ALGORITHMS; QUANTITATIVE research; PROBABILITY theory
- Publication
Natural Hazards, 2014, Vol 71, Issue 1, p837
- ISSN
0921-030X
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1007/s11069-013-0934-1