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- Title
Extreme Event Verification for Probabilistic Downscaling.
- Authors
KIRCHMEIER-YOUNG, MEGAN C.; LORENZ, DAVID J.; VIMONT, DANIEL J.
- Abstract
Extreme events are important to many studying regional climate impacts but provide a challenge for many ''deterministic'' downscaling methodologies. The University of Wisconsin Probabilistic Downscaling (UWPD) dataset applies a ''probabilistic'' approach to downscaling that may be advantageous in a number of situations, including realistic representation of extreme events. The probabilistic approach to downscaling, however, presents some unique challenges for verification, especially when comparing a full probability density function with a single observed value for each day. Furthermore, because of the wide range of specific climatic information needed in climate impacts assessment, any single verification metric will be useful to only a limited set of practitioners. The intent of this study, then, is (i) to identify verification metrics appropriate for probabilistic downscaling of climate data; (ii) to apply, within the UWPD, those metrics to a suite of extreme event statistics that may be of use in climate impacts assessments; and (iii) in applying these metrics, to demonstrate the utility of a probabilistic approach to downscaling climate data, especially for representing extreme events.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change; DOWNSCALING (Climatology); PROBABILITY density function; UNIVERSITY of Wisconsin; STATISTICAL climatology
- Publication
Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology, 2016, Vol 55, Issue 11, p2411
- ISSN
1558-8424
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0043.1