We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Evaluating Streamflow Forecasts in Hydro‐Dominated Power Systems—When and Why They Matter.
- Authors
Koh, Rachel; Galelli, Stefano
- Abstract
The value of seasonal streamflow forecasts for the hydropower industry has long been assessed by considering metrics related to hydropower availability. However, this approach overlooks the role played by hydropower dams within the power grid, therefore providing a myopic view of how forecasts could improve the operations of large‐scale power systems. With the aim of understanding how the value of streamflow forecasts penetrates through the power grid, we developed a coupled‐water energy model that is subject to reservoir inflow forecasts with different levels of predictive performance. We implement the modeling framework on a real‐world case study based on the Cambodian grid, which relies on hydropower, coal, oil, and imports from neighboring countries. In particular, we evaluate the performance in terms of metrics selected from both the reservoir and power systems, including available and dispatched hydropower, power production costs, CO2 emissions, and transmission line congestion. Through this framework, we demonstrate that streamflow forecasts can positively impact the operations of hydro‐dominated power systems, especially during the transition from wet to dry seasons. Moreover, we show that the value largely varies with the specific metric of performance at hand as well as the level of operational integration between water and power systems. Plain Language Summary: Forecasts of river streamflow are regularly used by water system operators to plan the operations of large‐scale infrastructures, such as hydropower dams. To date, research has focussed primarily on how the predictive performance of forecasts translates into added performance of reservoir systems, thereby overlooking the potential benefits for other interconnected infrastructures that depend on water availability. Here, we focus on the case of national power grids, whose performance is partially controlled by hydropower production. We show that the use of streamflow forecasts could bring benefits that "trickle down" to power system operations, reducing, for instance, power production costs and CO2 emissions during specific periods. Key Points: The benefits of streamflow forecasts trickle down from the water to the power systemForecasts are particularly useful during the transition from wet to dry seasonsThe relationship between forecast predictive performance and value is controlled by the level of operational integration between the two systems
- Subjects
STREAMFLOW; WATER supply; CARBON emissions; FORECASTING; WATER power; ELECTRIC power distribution grids; MICROIRRIGATION
- Publication
Water Resources Research, 2024, Vol 60, Issue 3, p1
- ISSN
0043-1397
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2023WR035825