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- Title
A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world.
- Authors
Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.
- Abstract
Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of 'no trend ' and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.
- Subjects
EMERGENCY management; FLOODS; INFRASTRUCTURE (Economics); ECONOMIC trends; TEST interpretation
- Publication
Water Resources Research, 2014, Vol 50, Issue 3, p1928
- ISSN
0043-1397
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/2013WR014561