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- Title
The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model.
- Authors
Nagelhout, Gera E.; Levy, David T.; Blackman, Kenneth; Currie, Laura; Clancy, Luke; Willemsen, Marc C.
- Abstract
ABSTRACT Aim To develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Design, setting and participants Netherlands SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies. Measurements Outcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings With a comprehensive set of policies, as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145 000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package. Conclusions Smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.
- Subjects
NETHERLANDS; SMOKING prevention; TOBACCO laws; MORTALITY prevention; MORTALITY; COMPUTER simulation; MATHEMATICAL models; HEALTH policy; RESEARCH funding; SMOKING; STATISTICS; RELATIVE medical risk; DISEASE prevalence
- Publication
Addiction, 2012, Vol 107, Issue 2, p407
- ISSN
0965-2140
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03642.x