We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Modeling State-Dependent Priorities of Malicious Agents.
- Authors
Bhashyam, Sumitra Sri; Montibeller, Gilberto
- Abstract
With ever-increasing terror threats, governments and security officials would benefit from a better understanding of what motivates terrorists to cause social unrest. A recent research trend is on gaining greater knowledge about the values of malicious agents to help manage the risk of terrorism. As a result, there seems to be the potential to use decision analysis as a means to model what may drive malicious agents to commit harmful actions. So far, research on this topic has assumed static preferences of such agents. In this paper, we present a framework that may be used to infer how terrorists' priorities may change over time and their impact on their choice of a harmful action. We suggest modeling state-dependent priorities of a terrorist group via a multicriteria model that incorporates state-dependent priorities to account for preference change caused by exogenous triggers and representing the environment as a system dynamics model. We describe how terrorists' visceral factors may affect the prioritization of objectives and show how such an analysis may support risk management in this context.
- Subjects
SECURITY personnel; TERRORISTS; SOCIAL unrest; MATHEMATICAL models; MULTIPLE criteria decision making; DECISION making
- Publication
Decision Analysis, 2012, Vol 9, Issue 2, p172
- ISSN
1545-8490
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1287/deca.1120.0237