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- Title
Wind Damage and Temperature Effect on Tree Mortality Caused by Ips typographus L.: Phase Transition Model.
- Authors
Soukhovolsky, Vladislav; Kovalev, Anton; Tarasova, Olga; Modlinger, Roman; Křenová, Zdenka; Mezei, Pavel; Škvarenina, Jaroslav; Rožnovský, Jaroslav; Korolyova, Nataliya; Majdák, Andrej; Jakuš, Rastislav
- Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop methods for constructing a simple model describing tree mortality caused by Ips typographus L. using a minimum number of variables. We developed a model for areas spanning natural mountain forests in the Tatra National Park (Slovakia) and the Šumava National Park (Czech Republic), and in managed Czech forests located in four areas varying in environmental conditions. The model describes the time series of tree mortality dynamics caused by I.typographus using two submodels: a long-term dynamics submodel, and a short-term dynamics autoregressive distributed lag(ADL) model incorporating a two year delay and temperature variable averaged over the April-May period. The quality of fit for our models (R2 value) ranged from 0.87 to 0.91. The model was formulated to capture the average monthly temperature effect, a key weather factor. We found that for high-elevation stands located at least 1000 ma.s.l., forest damage was predominantly influenced by May temperatures. For lower-elevation managed forests with warmer climates, the weather effect was insignificant.
- Subjects
SLOVAKIA; CZECH Republic; IPS typographus; TREE mortality; WIND damage; TEMPERATURE effect; PHASE transitions
- Publication
Forests (19994907), 2022, Vol 13, Issue 2, p180
- ISSN
1999-4907
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/f13020180