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- Title
Sensitivity analysis of the convective-scale AROME model to physical and dynamical parameters.
- Authors
Wimmer, Meryl; Raynaud, Laure; Descamps, Laurent; Berre, Loïk; Seity, Yann
- Abstract
A global sensitivity analysis of the convective-scale Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME)model is performed in order to determine the most influential parameters on the forecast of different near-surface variables. For that purpose, the Morris method is applied to 21 parameters from six different physical and dynamical parametrization schemes, over different seasons. Results highlight a set of eight parameters with a noticeable influence on most variables, in particular 10m wind speed and precipitation forecasts. The sensitivity of parameter uncertainties is also examined on different spatio-temporal scales. A clear diurnal cycle of parameters influence is observed in summer, in close connectionwith the convective activity. In addition, the spatial distribution of parameters influence is mostly consistent with the underlying distribution of weather forecasts. A Sobol’ sensitivity analysis, based on surrogate models, mostly confirms Morris conclusions and highlights some interactions between parameters.
- Subjects
SENSITIVITY analysis; PRECIPITATION forecasting; WEATHER forecasting; WIND speed
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2022, Vol 148, Issue 743, p920
- ISSN
0035-9009
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/qj.4239