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- Title
Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking.
- Authors
Gray, L. J.; Woollings, T. J.; Andrews, M.; Knight, J.
- Abstract
The 11-year solar cycle signal in December-January-February (DJF) averaged mean-sea-level pressure (SLP) and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; ∼13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; ∼32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixed-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic/European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at ∼1-year lag that originates primarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.
- Subjects
SOLAR cycle; BLOCKING (Meteorology); SEA level; HYDROSTATIC pressure; VOLCANIC eruptions; EL Nino
- Publication
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2016, Vol 142, Issue 698, p1890
- ISSN
0035-9009
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/qj.2782