We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Post-audit of a hydrological model: Evolution of predictive uncertainty in a 9 year modelling exercise.
- Authors
Kidmose, Jacob; Troldborg, Lars; Refsgaard, Jens Christian
- Abstract
Most of the post audits reported in literature are split sample (SS) type of tests where no changes are assumed in climate, land use of groundwater abstraction and where long time series often are available for calibration (Konikow and Bredehoeft, 1974; Alley and Emery, 1986; Andersen and Lu, 2003; Brkic et al., 2013), while small changes (< 50 %) in groundwater pumping occurred in two other studies (Konikow, 1986; Stewart and Langevin, 1999) where the tests may be characterised as DSS-light (differential split sample). None of the reported post audits include situations where a model was used to predict major changes in for instance groundwater abstraction, or in other words no strong DSS tests have been subject to post audits.The objectives of the present study are i) to provide an example of a post audit for prediction of situations representing large extrapolations from the calibration situation (strong DSS test); ii) to analyse how a post audit can improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions; and iii) to discuss how post audit studies should be carried out.The study evaluates a 9-year (2010-2019) hydrological modelling exercise following the planning, construction, and post-construction monitoring of a motorway through an urbanized and area in Western Denmark. During this period, a transient, 100 m discretised, 3D fully coupled groundwater-surface water model was developed and calibrated (2010-2013), updated and validated (2013-2016), and post-audited (2016-2019). Results describe the uncertainties of the early model predictions (groundwater conditions), to the uncertainties of the mature model based on a Monte Carlo methodology. ReferencesAndersen PF, Lu S (2003) A post audit of a model-designed ground water extraction system. Ground Water, 41, 212-218.Alley WM, Emery PA (1986) Groundwater model of the Blue River Basin, Nebraska – twenty years later. Journal of Hydrology, 85, 225-250.Brkic Z, Uromovic K, Briski M (2013) Post Audit Analysis of a Groundwater Level Prediction Model in Developed Semiconfined Aquifer System. Water Resources Management, 27, 3349-3363.Konikow LF, Bredehoeft JD (1974) Modelling flow and chemical quality changes in an irrigated stream-aquifer system. Water Resources Research, 10, 546-562.Konikow LF (1986) Predictive accuracy of a ground-water model – lesson from a postaudit. Ground Water, 24, 173-84.Stewart M, Langevin C (1999) Post audit of a numerical prediction of wellfield drawdown in a semiconfined aquifer system. Ground Water 37, 245-252.
- Subjects
NEBRASKA; DENMARK; MONTE Carlo method; WATER table; GROUNDWATER; GROUNDWATER analysis; WATER supply; METROPOLITAN areas
- Publication
Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2019, Vol 21, p1
- ISSN
1029-7006
- Publication type
Article