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- Title
SEASONAL EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING WITH DAMPED TRENDS.
- Authors
Gardner Jr., Everette S.; McKenzie, Ed.
- Abstract
In this paper we apply the strategy of trend-damping to the popular Winters exponential smoothing systems for seasonal time series. Efficient model formulations are derived for both multiplicative and additive seasonal patterns. An algorithm is given to test the stability of the models in cases where predetermined smoothing parameters are used. Empirical results are presented to show that trend-damping improves ex ante forecast accuracy in seasonal data, especially at long leadtimes.
- Subjects
BUSINESS forecasting; SEASONAL markets; TRENDS; ALGORITHMS; FORECASTING; BUSINESS cycles; EARNINGS forecasting; FINANCIAL performance; SMOOTHING (Numerical analysis)
- Publication
Management Science, 1989, Vol 35, Issue 3, p372
- ISSN
0025-1909
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1287/mnsc.35.3.372