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- Title
Analysis of the Distribution Pattern of Phenacoccus manihoti in China under Climate Change Based on the Biomod2 Model.
- Authors
Huang, Yumeng; Li, Tong; Chen, Weijia; Zhang, Yuan; Xu, Yanling; Guo, Tengda; Wang, Shuping; Liu, Jingyuan; Qin, Yujia
- Abstract
Simple Summary: The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) represents a significant quarantine pest affecting cassavas. This study seeks to elucidate the patterns of the suitable habitat and distribution centers of cassava mealybugs in China, as well as their dynamic ecological niche in invaded areas under the influence of climate change. Climate factors have primarily concentrated suitable habitats for cassava mealybugs in the southern regions of China, with minimal observed changes and a slight northward expansion. The dynamic ecological niche is also projected to expand slightly. Based on these predictions, relevant quarantine agencies can implement measures to prevent the introduction and spread of cassava mealybugs. The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among the most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China is currently free of the cassava mealybug, its proximity to affected countries and extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding of the pest's distribution pattern and dynamic ecological niche changes. Using the Biomod2 model, we selected two historical climate scenarios and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the distribution patterns, potential habitats, distribution centers, and dynamic ecological niches of cassava mealybugs in China. Key environmental variables influencing the distribution were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, and bio19. The potential habitat of cassava mealybugs is mainly located in several provinces in southern China. In the future, the suitable habitat is projected to expand slightly under the influence of climate change, maintaining the overall trend, but the distribution center of suitable areas will shift northward. Dynamic ecological niche prediction results indicate the potential for further expansion; however, the ecological niches may be unequal and dissimilar in the invaded areas. The predictions could serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies to control the introduction of cassava mealybugs.
- Subjects
ECOLOGICAL niche; AGRICULTURAL productivity; MEALYBUGS; PLANT parasites; WAREHOUSES
- Publication
Biology (2079-7737), 2024, Vol 13, Issue 7, p538
- ISSN
2079-7737
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3390/biology13070538