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- Title
Some observations on the temporal patterns in the surplus process of an insurer.
- Authors
Yang Miao; Sendova, Kristina P.; Jones, Bruce L.; Zhong Li
- Abstract
In this paper, we explore potential surplus modelling improvements by investigating how well the available models describe an insurance risk process. To this end, we obtain and analyse a real-life data set that is provided by an anonymous insurer. Based on our analysis, we discover that both the purchasing process and the corresponding claim process have seasonal fluctuations. Some special events, such as public holidays, also have impact on these processes. In the existing literature, the seasonality is often stressed in the claim process, while the cash inflow usually assumes simple forms. We further suggest a possible way of modelling the dependence between these two processes. A preliminary analysis of the impact of these patterns on the surplus process is also conducted. As a result, we propose a surplus process model which utilises a non-homogeneous Poisson process for premium counts and a Cox process for claim counts that reflect the specific features of the data.
- Subjects
INSURANCE companies; POISSON processes; ACTUARIAL risk; SPECIAL events; RISK (Insurance)
- Publication
British Actuarial Journal, 2023, Vol 28, p1
- ISSN
1357-3217
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1017/S1357321723000041