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- Title
Dealing with data uncertainty.
- Authors
Ashley, James; Driver, Ronnie; Hayes, Simon; Jeffery, Christopher
- Abstract
True values of key macroeconomic variables are unobservable and can only be estimated. A key question for the Monetary Policy Committee is how best to take account of the resultant uncertainty in its economic assessment. Official estimates of economic variables are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and some private sector organisations publish surveys of business activity that may also give clues as to the underlying state of the economy. This article presents a simple methodology for deriving ‘best guesses’ of the true values of economic variables by weighting together official estimates and information from business surveys.
- Subjects
MONETARY policy; ECONOMIC policy; INDUSTRIAL surveys; MACROECONOMICS; ECONOMICS
- Publication
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 2005, Vol 45, Issue 1, p23
- ISSN
0005-5166
- Publication type
Article