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- Title
定量风险评估方法在LNG项目的应用现状.
- Authors
张志鹏; 郑建国; 刘凯; 吴尧; 张宗武; 赵凯杰; 杜旭红; 曹江远; 赵怀璞
- Abstract
With the continuous development and adjustment of China's energy structure, the use and storage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are gradually gaining attention, and the scale of related facilities is constantly expanding. This has made safety risk a significant research focus. Quantitative risk assessment methods can be utilized to assess the risk of LNG facilities, providing guidance on the design, manufacturing, installation, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning processes of equipment and facilities. This paper summarizes the present state of implementing quantitative risk assessment methods in LNG projects, specifically examining scenario frequency calculation and incident consequence calculation. The analysis focuses on the specific methods and tools utilized in these steps, such as failure frequency databases, expert judgment, and fuzzy mathematics, which are common approaches for determining leakage frequency of equipment and facilities and ignition probability of the dispersed gas. However, there is currently a lack of databases in China. Moreover, foreign databases do not match performance data of domestic equipment and LNG projects in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a complete database on equipment and facility failures specifically tailored for China's LNG projects. When determining the frequency of a scenario, the calculations often rely on static calculations, which does not consider the dynamic nature of complex systems. This fails to account for the impact of new information on the scenario occurrence frequency. Thus, dynamic quantitative risk analysis is a hot topic of current research. The results of this research can provide valuable insights for decision-making regarding quantitative risk assessment for LNG projects.
- Publication
Natural Gas & Oil, 2023, Vol 41, Issue 5, p116
- ISSN
1006-5539
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2023.05.017