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- Title
Missing Increase in Summer Greenland Blocking in Climate Models.
- Authors
Maddison, J. W.; Catto, J. L.; Hanna, E.; Luu, L. N.; Screen, J. A.
- Abstract
Summertime Greenland blocking (GB) can drive melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which has global implications. A strongly increasing trend in GB in the early twenty‐first century was observed but is missing in climate model simulations. Here, we analyze the temporal evolution of GB in nearly 500 members from the CMIP6 archive. The recent period of increased GB is not present in the members considered. The maximum 10‐year trend in GB in the reanalysis, associated with the recent increase, lies almost outside the distributions of trends for any 10‐year period in the climate models. GB is shown to be partly driven by the sea surface temperatures and/or sea ice concentrations, as well as by anthropogenic aerosols. Further work is required to understand why climate models cannot represent a period of increased GB, and appear to underestimate its decadal variability, and what implications this may have. Plain Language Summary: An increasing trend in summertime atmospheric blocking over Greenland was observed during the early twenty‐first century. However, this trend is not reproduced in climate models. This may have important implication for climate change projections, as summertime Greenland blocking drives the melting of its ice sheet which is a major contributing factor to global sea level rise. Here, recent trends in Greenland blocking are assessed in nearly 500 ensemble members from a large archive of state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We find that a recent increasing trend like that observed is absent in all of the ensemble members, and a trend of such magnitude is very unlikely to be simulated in them, which suggests a deficiency in the climate model simulation of Greenland blocking. The model simulations do however suggest that Greenland blocking is partly forced by sea surface temperatures/sea ice concentrations and/or anthropogenic aerosols, but the response of the models to these forcings may be too weak. These results provide new understanding on drivers of Greenland blocking in climate models and offer avenues for model development designed to improve simulations of Greenland climate. Key Points: The observed rapid increase in summertime Greenland blocking during the first decade of the twenty‐first century has not continuedA period of increased summer Greenland blocking of similar magnitude to observed is rarely reproduced in a large ensemble of climate modelsDecadal variability in Greenland blocking in climate models is partly driven by SST/sea ice and/or anthropogenic aerosols
- Subjects
GREENLAND; ATMOSPHERIC models; OCEAN temperature; ICE sheet thawing; SEA ice; SUMMER; SEA level
- Publication
Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, Vol 51, Issue 11, p1
- ISSN
0094-8276
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1029/2024GL108505