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- Title
Subseasonal forecasts provide a powerful tool for dynamic marine mammal management.
- Authors
Stepanuk, Julia EF; Kim, Hyemi; Nye, Janet A; Roberts, Jason J; Halpin, Pat N; Palka, Debra L; Pabst, D Ann; McLellan, William A; Barco, Susan G; Thorne, Lesley H
- Abstract
Adaptive approaches are needed to effectively manage dynamic marine systems, and ecological forecasts can help managers anticipate when and where conservation issues are likely to arise in the future. The recent development of subseasonal global environmental forecasts provides an opportunity to inform management by forecasting species distributions in advance over operational timeframes. We demonstrate the utility of environmental forecasts for managing marine mammals by integrating species distribution models with subseasonal forecasts to predict the arrival of migratory humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) at foraging grounds in the Northeast US. Environmental forecasts showed high model skill at lead times of up to 2 weeks and resulting humpback whale models performed well in predicting humpback arrival. Forecasts of whale distribution can shape management efforts to minimize both impacts on whales and economic costs. Applying subseasonal forecasts to anticipate future risk presents a powerful tool for the dynamic management of marine mammals. Front Ecol Environ 2022;
- Subjects
ECOLOGICAL forecasting; MARINE mammals; HUMPBACK whale; FORECASTING; SPECIES distribution; LEAD time (Supply chain management)
- Publication
Frontiers in Ecology & the Environment, 2023, Vol 21, Issue 3, p117
- ISSN
1540-9295
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1002/fee.2506