We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
HOW DO THE OECD GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE G7 ECONOMIES PERFORM? A POST-MORTEM.
- Authors
Vogel, Lukas
- Abstract
The article analyzes the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the Group of Seven (G7) counties over the period 1991-2006 and compares them with the Consensus Economic forecasts. The study shows that OECD growth projections display desirable features including unbiased and efficient projections, projection errors tend to shrink as the horizon shortens and projections are directionally accurate most of the time. It is noted that the regression analysis suggests that the OECD and Consensus add value to naive forecasts for spring current-year and autumn one-year-ahead projections of the business cycles.
- Subjects
OECD countries; GROSS domestic product; ECONOMIC development; ECONOMIC forecasting; ECONOMIC indicators; BUSINESS cycles; REGRESSION analysis; ORGANISATION for Economic Co-operation &; Development; GROUP of Seven countries
- Publication
OECD Papers, 2007, Vol 7, Issue 9, p1
- ISSN
1609-1914
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1787/111804483765