We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
Do basketball scoring patterns reflect illegal point shaving or optimal in‐game adjustments?
- Authors
Gregory, Jesse
- Abstract
This paper develops and estimates a model of college basketball teams' search for scoring opportunities, to provide a benchmark of the winning margin distributions that should arise if teams' only goal is to win. I estimate the model's structural parameters using first‐half play‐by‐play data from college games and simulate the estimated model's predicted winning margin distributions. Teams' optimal state‐dependent strategies generate patterns that match those previously cited as evidence of point shaving. The results suggest that corruption in NCAA basketball is less prevalent than previously suggested and that indirect forensic economics methodology can be sensitive to seemingly innocuous institutional features.
- Subjects
BASKETBALL shooting; FORENSIC economics; NCAA Basketball Tournament; PROBABILITY theory; NONPARAMETRIC estimation
- Publication
Quantitative Economics, 2018, Vol 9, Issue 2, p1053
- ISSN
1759-7323
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.3982/QE519