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- Title
Identifying correlates of Guinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) infection in domestic dog populations.
- Authors
Richards, Robert L.; Cleveland, Christopher A.; Hall, Richard J.; Tchindebet Ouakou, Philip; Park, Andrew W.; Ruiz-Tiben, Ernesto; Weiss, Adam; Yabsley, Michael J.; Ezenwa, Vanessa O.
- Abstract
Few human infectious diseases have been driven as close to eradication as dracunculiasis, caused by the Guinea worm parasite (Dracunculus medinensis). The number of human cases of Guinea worm decreased from an estimated 3.5 million in 1986 to mere hundreds by the 2010s. In Chad, domestic dogs were diagnosed with Guinea worm for the first time in 2012, and the numbers of infected dogs have increased annually. The presence of the parasite in a non-human host now challenges efforts to eradicate D. medinensis, making it critical to understand the factors that correlate with infection in dogs. In this study, we evaluated anthropogenic and environmental factors most predictive of detection of D. medinensis infection in domestic dog populations in Chad. Using boosted regression tree models to identify covariates of importance for predicting D. medinensis infection at the village and spatial hotspot levels, while controlling for surveillance intensity, we found that the presence of infection in a village was predicted by a combination of demographic (e.g. fishing village identity, dog population size), geographic (e.g. local variation in elevation), and climatic (e.g. precipitation and temperature) factors, which differed between northern and southern villages. In contrast, the presence of a village in a spatial infection hotspot, was primarily predicted by geography and climate. Our findings suggest that factors intrinsic to individual villages are highly predictive of the detection of Guinea worm parasite presence, whereas village membership in a spatial infection hotspot is largely determined by location and climate. This study provides new insight into the landscape-scale epidemiology of a debilitating parasite and can be used to more effectively target ongoing research and possibly eradication and control efforts. Author summary: The eradication of human infectious diseases has proven remarkably difficult. The world has only succeeded once, in the case of the smallpox virus. However, international efforts have driven the debilitating Guinea worm parasite closer to the brink of eradication than nearly any other parasite. Coordinated efforts by the Ministries of Health in endemic countries, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, The Carter Center, and the World Health Organization have reduced the number of annual Guinea worm cases from millions in the 1980s to hundreds in the early 2010s, but recently a new threat has emerged. Guinea worm infections have been diagnosed in domestic dogs, particularly in the Republic of Chad, and numbers of infections have continued to increase. As in many countries where dracunculiasis is endemic, the campaign for eradication in Chad has focused intervention measures on interrupting transmission among humans, so infection in dogs jeopardizes eradication efforts. In this study, we used machine learning methods to identify demographic, geographic, and climatic factors associated with the presence of Guinea worm-infected dogs at the village level, and spatial clustering of dog cases regionally. A combination of demographic, geographic and climatic factors were important correlates of infection at the village level, but the importance of these factors varied between northern and southern populations of the parasite. At the larger village cluster level, the geographic position and climate of a village were most important. Some of our findings, including the importance of fishing villages and the difference in correlates between northern and southern villages can be used by researchers to guide additional data collection and by public health workers to better target eradication efforts. More generally, this work contributes to a broader understanding of the spatial patterning of multi-host infectious diseases of humans and animals.
- Subjects
CHAD; DOGS; SMALLPOX; FISHING villages; WORLD Health Organization; CENTERS for Disease Control &; Prevention (U.S.); COMMUNICABLE diseases; WORMS; EMERGING infectious diseases
- Publication
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2020, Vol 14, Issue 9, p1
- ISSN
1935-2727
- Publication type
Article
- DOI
10.1371/journal.pntd.0008620