We found a match
Your institution may have access to this item. Find your institution then sign in to continue.
- Title
A Comparison of Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods for Macroeconomic Indicators in Romania, Poland and Czech Republic.
- Authors
Bratu (Simionescu), Mihaela
- Abstract
Econometric modelling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in prac tice, but the objective of this research was to identify which of the two are better for short-run predictions. Therefore, accuracy indica tors were calculated for making predictions about inflation, unemployment and inter est rates in Romania, Poland and the Czech Republic using these methods. Short-run fore casts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011 - February 2012; the econo metric models being updated. Exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than econometric models in the case of Poland and the Czech Republic (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques is that short-run predictions are more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators in the chosen countries. In Romania, econometric models generated better predictions than the exponential smoothing method.
- Subjects
CZECH Republic; POLAND; ROMANIA; ECONOMETRIC models; FORECASTING; QUANTITATIVE research
- Publication
Journal of Management & Change, 2012, Vol 29, Issue 1, p104
- ISSN
2228-2181
- Publication type
Article